I love American Express

26 June 2008 at 10:22 am (announce)

Last month I ordered a new MP3 player using Amex Membership Reward points.  It was stolen at Scholl Canyon Golf Course the day after I received it.  With no luck, I called every day for a week afterward asking if anyone had turned it.

This morning, as I was about to purchase a new one I figured it was a long shot to see if the purchase was covered under some kind of “Protection Program” and rang American Express.  I was quickly routed to a rep for the program, answered a few simple questions, including a description of how it was stolen, and was issued a credit for the charge.

Here are brief details of the program from the American Express website:

Purchase Protection repairs, replaces or reimburses you for the amount charged to the Card (not to exceed the original purchase price). Coverage is limited to up to $1,000 per Occurrence, up to $50,000 per Card account per policy year, and is in EXCESS of other sources of indemnity.

Thank you American Express!!

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$300k price drop in Flintridge

30 May 2008 at 6:37 am (real estate)

4190 HAMPSTEAD Rd La Canada, CA 91011

Listing Price Information

  • Original Price: $1,515,000.00
  • Search Price: $1,259,000.00

This one is being sold by the owner, who is also a real estate agent.  It’s been on the market for over half a year, and rightfully so — 1.5m is a joke.  In today’s market, considering today’s financing and competing properties, I’d say somewhere in the $900k range would be generous.

It’s got an awkward layout, everything needs updating, it’s small for the price and it’s split upon multiple levels — the street leads down to the house and then a pool about 30′ below the house — everything feels tight.  You might notice that the photo of the house is crowded, almost like the photographer should have stepped back, well he couldn’t.  He would have stepped off a cliff.

I can see this as a possible tear-down, at least the neighborhood is ok.

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Summer 2008 Armchair Economist

27 May 2008 at 12:03 pm (announce)

The Conference Board posted a report illustrating that consumer confidence is the lowest since ‘92 (a survey of 5,000 households, based on an index of 100 created in 1985). I am skeptical of subjective surveys to random phone numbers across the US asking leading questions like, “Do you think you are worse off than last year, or really worse off? Choose one.”

I will argue that the real inflation rate, not the bogus one published by the government, is the real number to watch with regard to consumer confidence through the balance of the year.

I am also going to watch new vehicle sales numbers through the summer, specifically luxury automobiles, to verify the current theories in the press that home equity was driving a surge in consumer spending. On paper this seems obvious, but crashing sales of MBZs and BMWs will solidify the proposition in my mind.

Theoretically, rents should also go up as demand increases for rental property fueled by people walking away from foreclosed homes.

On the bright side, business should be good: money is cheap, the weak dollar will encourage exports and the agriculture bubble should energize commodity markets, keeping money in the country. And the weather is nice.

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Takeo Kikuchi

14 May 2008 at 8:41 am (announce)

Wallet photo.  As requested.  Similar in form to this wallet.

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by the way..

10 May 2008 at 3:08 am (announce)

I got a new wallet today in a Shibuya department store.  It’s made by a local designer, it’s cool and if you know me and see it, you will be jealous. Hah!

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Meiji Shrine, et al

10 May 2008 at 2:42 am (travel)

Work obligations stole the morning and rain threatened to take the afternoon, but we struck back and braved the downpour with a visit to the Meiji Shrine. It started off with a repeating theme for this trip: we walk within 100′ of our destination, lose orientation and proceed to walk in a long arc away from our target. It happened in Akihabara, the golf range and today. Anyway, the shrine was cool. Glad we did it.

They had these cool lamps hanging from the eves of the main building and I snagged what I thought would be useful as wallpaper.

Today’s trip was prefixed by another venture into an inexpensive sushi bar in Shibuya, the Standing Sushi Bar. It was delicious, filling and like yesterday, just short of $10. With one exception I’ve been eating sushi at every meal on this trip (and loving every bite).

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Konichiwa, Arregato, Sayonara!

9 May 2008 at 2:55 am (travel)

Haven’t posted in a while but what better time to update my blog with an occasion as special as leaving Beijing and arriving in Tokyo.

Beijing is raw, Tokyo is refined. Beijing is full of counterfeits, Tokyo is the real thing. Beijing is the frontier, Tokyo is the big city. Beijing pulsates on potential, Tokyo has been realized. Beijing doesn’t know how to bill you, Tokyo will open a hole in your wallet. Above all, Tokyo is the epitome of cool. I have a new found respect for the Japanese people and the magnificent city they’ve built in Asia, and I’m honored to partake in the adventure that is walking around Shibuya, Tokyo, Akihabara, Ginza, Ueno and Asakusa.

Today was electronic sensory overload in Akihabara from 7 floors of coin-op video games to 7 floors of electronic gadgets followed by a compulsory visit to the Apple Store in Ginza and split nicely down the middle with a conveyor-belt style sushi restaurant cheap enough by LA standards to be considered all-you-can-eat (and I just about ate all I could eat).

Yesterday was an adventure in getting lost trying to find a driving range sandwiched between two pro baseball stadiums highlighted with a vehement argument between Bill and I as to whether a particular fence in the distance was part of a baseball stadium or the range (turns out, both).

The adventure continues tonight as I have convinced my plain-hamburger-eating, lactose-intolerance-faking, diet-coke-in-the-veins-drinking buddy Bill to eat Japan’s signature dish: sushi. Although I’m confident there will be a KFC or McD’s chaser, I will at least get him to eat 1 sake sushi and post a video for those of you who would be amazed at such antics. To his credit, he did eat a whole shrimp 3 nights ago, tentacles, legs and all.

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Friday afternoon linkage

21 March 2008 at 12:39 pm (real estate)

How they pull pranks on Wall Street.  Awesome.

Another reason why a mortgage bailout plan is a stupid idea.

Note to the Republican Party: add this to your recruiting brochure.  Millions of financially responsible Americans with money to contribute will flock to your party.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, has been making continuous forward-looking statements about real estate ownership over the past few months, baffling experts, r/e blogs and informed readers to no end.  I’ve seen this before in a different form, I can’t help but draw similarities between Mr. Yun’s press releases of late to the statements made by Iraq’s Minister of Information, Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Iraq.  I’m not going to go into details explaining it, you had to live through it, but the degree of misinformation from both parties is uncanny.

The party is officially over, Countrywide has discontinued it’s wholesale equity line products.  I wonder what effect this is going to have on the luxury car market (seriously).  No more equity withdrawals for Plasma TVs, BMW SUVs, Lavish 5-star vacations, designer jeans, the equity fun-money account is now closed.  Good riddance.  Now, back to credit card debt…

Stories outlining how people are coping with the financial times.  Good read.

OK ok ok.  A non-real estate link.  User contributed photos around the LA area on latimes.com.  Very cool.

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Ask/Close Spread: a fascinating number

27 February 2008 at 3:13 pm (real estate)

The MBC blog ran a fantastic entry about the difference between the asking and selling price of homes in the area.  Executive summary: 10-15%.

If you’ve read almost any real estate article lately you’ve probably been beaten to death with news about declining median home prices in Los Angeles, but that number is so impersonal because it includes a wide demographic of property values and neighborhoods — hardly applicable to any specific person or situation apart from understanding that, as a whole, prices are going down.

Manhattan Beach is an affluent, high-priced area with good schools thereby extremely compatible with South Pasadena, La Canada and San Marino.  A 10-15% price spread is a meaningful metric, I am going to work on determining the actual spread with my propertyshark account.  More to come.

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Lodi Dodi recap

25 February 2008 at 11:11 pm (real estate)

Quick update, of the 4 sample properties I posted in the Lodi Dodi article at the beginning of the year, none of them have sold (one went off-market) despite all being in highly desirable areas: San Marino, Pinecrest area of La Crescenta, Madison Heights in Pasadena and South Pasadena.

In January South Pas saw a lousy total of 3 transactions, one of them a foreclosure going back to the bank.  La Canada saw only 10 sales in the same time period.  Hard to tell if consumers are waiting on the sidelines for a sign to buy or of the buyers themselves have dried up.  Only time will tell.

When propertyshark has February numbers I’ll post them too.

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25 February 2008 at 11:00 pm (real estate)

“Bobo” writes,

Why would the person who owns the 1.785mm home going to sell if the bottom falls? He or she will just hold on to it till the market recovers. Perhaps that person plans to live there for maybe 10-20 years and not 3 years and then sell? By then that home will probably be worth more.

Also, the person who purchase this house doesn’t have to make a killing elsewhere. That person could have sold their previous property (or properties) at the same price or slightly less.

I doubt home owners want to see their property value go down. The ones who wish the bottom to fall are the ones who don’t own a home.

I agree with most of what’s written here, the long view argument is hard to argue with on almost any traditional investment. The sad part is how far your dollar in real estate goes in this market, a “one million dollar house” used to be sacred but now $1.785mm gets you a 99 year old house on a busy street in an upper-middle-class neighborhood.

Just for perspective, at that price you need either a stellar income or a massive down payment. Some numbers (incl. property tax):

  • $500k down, $9k/mo
  • $1mm down, $6300/mo
  • $1.5mm down, $3350/mo
  • At the traditional 20% down: $357k and $10,200/mo

As you need roughly 3x your mortgage payment to qualify, you would need to make roughly $367k/yr to be capable of supporting that mortgage. Granted, there are lots of people in LA who can swing that, but not that many. It’s worth noting that a $100k writeoff will not do much good to a $367k income, you will still be in a 43% tax bracket … but of course, I can’t fully speculate on how rich people maneuver these types of things.

I don’t wish “the bottom to fall,” rather I would like to see prices adjust to relative incomes in the area. Peter Viles put it in perspective pretty well in his recent blog posts about a fixer in Lawndale and a stater home in a rough neighborhood — both at prices I would have had a hard time coming to grips with when I bought my first house.

My Realtor called today to mention that banks are no longer doing 5% down deals with jumbo loans, and that 15% is the new starting figure. If true that will make capital extremely hard to access without existing cash reserves and she further speculated that a number of homes would fall out of escrow in these price categories. So let’s sit back and watch.

Bobo, thanks for the comments.

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Shu Shoppinz

23 February 2008 at 5:22 pm (ocd)

$100+ left on a Macy*s gift card, 3 days after Christmas.

Wandering the shoe department, spot a sweet pair.  Ecko Unltd, not in my size.

Find them at the Pasadena store,  the box has mixed sizes in it (9.5 & 10). Damn.

Find them at the Arcadia store, bring them home.  Finally!

Wife doesn’t like them. Return.

Vans store at Santa Anita, wife doesn’t like all 3 pairs I try on.  Getting disappointed.

I cannot bring myself to buy another pair of uncomfortable low-top chucks at Nordstrom.  Salesman is annoyed.

Today.  Vans store.  Pasadena.

Victory.

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WTF!!

23 February 2008 at 5:08 pm (real estate)

Rip offA house goes up for 1.785mm on Monterey in South Pas.  So… aha!  Let’s watch this one rot!  3 days later, it’s under contract.  I don’t get it.

I was wrong, by the way, in the South Pas/La Canada/San Marino/Madison Heights areas I am not seeing the kind of inventory numbers I thought we would be seeing post-Superbowl.  As a matter of fact, there is hardly any inventory.   It’s looking like affluent owners are better capable of keeping up with their mortgage payments than those in starter neighborhoods.  Just look at the listings.

A friend of mine just bought a 1mm+ apartment building and he mentioned that the agent revealed that well over 80% of their transactions in the past 6 months have been exchanges.  This represents recycled money in the r/e market, as opposed to new money, and that will eventually dry up too.  In other words, if the bottom falls out then there will be noone to buy your 1.785mm home, so I’m guessing whoever bought that house sold another one for a killing elsewhere.

I’ll pull the property report and post here when (if?) the transaction closes.   Until then, wtf!!

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Lodi dodi, we like to party

9 January 2008 at 8:29 pm (real estate)

I love it when I’m right. New listings are just now hitting the MLS and they are all starting at April-07 prices (considered the ‘peak’ time in the price boom that started in 2000), just as I predicted. As I mentioned earlier, they will be competing with similarly priced properties that have been on the market for months, further adding to an inventory that buyers are not motivated to purchase. In many cases, the homes were purchased in ‘05 or sooner. I stand by my prediction, these listings will build a critical mass through Superbowl Sunday after which reactive price declines will drive the market down in the $1mm-plus range.

Supporting cases:

San Marino: purchased Feb-05 for $1.18m, selling for $1.6m

Pasadena (SW): purchased Oct-05 for $1.01m, selling for$1.1. This one has a paddle-tennis/basketball court, yeah!!

La Crescenta: purchased Mar-05 for $950k, selling for $1.15

South Pasadena: purchased May-05 for $688k, selling for $799k

Good luck people, you’re gonna need it! Hey if you liked this post, check out the Kate in the Valley blog, she’s in the same boat I am in and she updates her blog way more often than amusedbyrick.

…when we rock the mic we rock the mic riiiiight…

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Idle Internet browsing finally pays off

1 January 2008 at 11:15 pm (ocd)

So I’m looking at a terminal map of LAX on nwa.com for no good reason other than I’m bored/obsessed and it tells me to report to Terminal 2 for my flight to China.  Any time I’ve ever flown out of the country, I’ve always walked through the Tom Bradley Int’l Terminal and for this trip I had just assumed the same, so I was becoming concerned.  Which terminal should I walk into tomorrow?

After some frantic web surfing and one phone call to NWA, I discovered that domestic carriers flying internationally use their own terminals for all flights, domestic and international. Recalling past trips abroad, they have all been on foreign carriers.  Whew.  That would have been terribly frustrating.

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Superbowl Sunday

1 January 2008 at 12:30 am (real estate)

Real estate is on my mind, my house is about to close. What do you suppose everyone who plans to sell is thinking right now?

I better list my house before real estate prices start to really fall. It’s too much of a bother to list before the holidays so I’ll wait until January to get serious.

They are about to join the club of overpriced homes on the real estate market. A good deal of inventory has already been rotting on the market for 30+, 60+, 90+ days and new listings with asking prices that harken back to the summer of ‘07 will extend the stench that makes buyers sneer with disgust.

Competition is fierce below $750,000 all over Los Angeles. Look at any map on Redfin.com and you’ll see a flood of listings in the $400-600k areas and substantially less above $800k. This time around it looks like prices are collapsing at the bottom and working their way up — opposite of the crash in 1989-1990 where the high end fell hard first.

So if you’re going to list your house, I’d list for a fast sell. Things are going to degenerate quickly, or so I’m hoping!

By the time Superbowl Sunday happens I’m thinking we’ll see a critical mass of new listings vs. stale listings vs. an army of picky buyers.

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3 days until Christmas!

22 December 2007 at 10:32 pm (announce)

We went to the Grove tonight, I was reluctant to go but ended up having a really good time.  Banana Republic is having and unbelievable sale so Jill & I picked up a few nice things. Sam had an allergic reaction to the pasta, but everything is under control.  I thought of a Mastercard commercial rundown…

  • Belated shopping, 3 days before Christmas
  • Maneuvering a  double-stroller in a crowded area
  • Dealing with heavily congested traffic within 2 miles of the Grove
  • Use my Mastercard for valet to skip musical chairs in the parking lot
  • Tipping the valet guy $10 to park my Yukon in the front, next to the Lamborghini Gallardo, priceless

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Who plays better?

22 December 2007 at 5:19 pm (important)

Of the three groups, CEOs, Hollywood Actors and Musicians, who do you think would play better golf (if you considered the top 10 players). I chose CEOs for no good reason, but Musicians have the edge. Makes sense, there’s more of them and the successful ones have the time and money needed to play well.

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Tickle me Jesus

17 December 2007 at 9:48 am (announce)

Move aside Wii, come to Jesus.  In an odd twist, the most popular toy of the Christmas season this year is a talking Jesus doll, sold out of the $20 price level at Walmart stores nationwide.

Retailers remain puzzled as to why not one Mohammed doll has moved off the shelves.

(just kidding)

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Eye Couture

12 December 2007 at 3:24 pm (funny)

I found a pair of sunglasses on the garage floor last night on the way to my car.  It was late, so I picked them up, carefully placed them back in the case and planned on turning them in to Security the next morning. But some text on the case caught my attention, “Eye Couture,” and I had never heard of the brand, Loree Rodkin, so I looked them up on the internet:  $500+ sunglasses, so now I’m curious who owns these things.

Today, I posted a note in all the elevators:

If you have recently lost a crazy nice pair of sunglasses I just wanted you to know that I have them, they look great on me and I’m really enjoying them.  Just Kidding.  Call x9999, they are on my desk, I found them in the garage last night. 

And now I’m getting a bunch of [prank] calls from people anxious to see who posted the note.  Hah.

In case you’re wondering, no, I absolutely do not plan on keeping them.  I’ll turn them into security if I don’t hear from anyone soon.

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Carmax.com

11 December 2007 at 9:50 pm (important)

Carmax redesigned their website, and it rocks!  They basically implemented a browse feature with histograms, which makes it super easy to get at the car you want to see.  Which, for me, is ultra-important.

(still can’t link directly to a car without using their email-a-friend feature)

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No music.

11 December 2007 at 11:22 am (nerd)

Rhapsody is totally down as of this morning, I can’t log in, can’t listen to music, sucks (my portable Sansa still works though).  Real just laid off 100 or so people today, I wonder if that has anything to do with it.

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Tee it up

6 December 2007 at 10:16 pm (ocd)

American Golf has a fantastic golf lesson package for beginner and intermediate players. I’ve taken two lessons so far and my game has been turned upside down, I’ve gone from 100+ to sub-100 scores after just 2 rounds. My swing feels strong and natural and I’m consistently killing the ball with clubs that only gave me slices in the past. When I goof a shot I have a pretty good idea what I did wrong. I’m very happy with the program, if you want to learn more about golf or you want to refine your game or you want to learn the fundamentals, I highly recommend it.

For $199 here’s what you get:

  • Four 90 minute group golf lessons with a PGA pro.
  • $100 range card for $50
  • 5 rounds of golf
  • 9 holes with a Pro
  • Discounted rates on future lessons, roughly half price: $99 for 4 lessons in a calendar month
  • A student discount card, includes discounted rounds, $3 for $6 range cards, 25% off food, 10% off items in the pro shop

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Before you move to San Marino

2 December 2007 at 10:00 pm (real estate)

Read this

http://www.ci.san-marino.ca.us/city_ordinances.htm

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Auto show recap

21 November 2007 at 10:09 pm (reviews)

American cars are back!

  • Cadillac CTS, loved it!   Easily a 5 series contender, this coming from an owner of a 5 series.  I’m gonna stroll into a Caddy dealer next time around, something I would never have done before.
  • Saturn Sky 100, Pontiac Solstice 0.  I would consider the Sky over the Miata.  The Solstice felt like the entire Pontiac brand, cheap.
  • The GMC Acadia is our next car.  The X5 is a close second, but the additional $20k is hard to justify.  The Tahoe/Yukon just doesn’t match the refinement in this crowded segment.  Luxo brands each have something seriously wrong with them: GL is big but feels small inside, LX is too small, GX is too cramped, Toureg is too girly, etc.
  • BMW’s lineup is getting tired.  Toyota is as exciting as a piece of toast.  Lexus is a substitute for Melatonin.
  • The Range Rover Sport is awesome, I’d pick it in it’s price category.
  • Thin crowds midweek, priceless.

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How was Maui?

6 November 2007 at 10:37 pm (travel)

It was great. We love it so much we plan on going back to the same spot, year after year.

Rather than bore you with pictures of stunning sunsets, spectacularly good-looking kids and heavenly points of interest, I’ll summarize the more exceptional highlights:

  • I’m walking away with $900 in airline credit vouchers, see previous post.
  • Sofie took her first steps in Maui, officially becoming a toddler.
  • Quote of the trip, from the guy I rented a surfboard from, If you find a good break and don’t see anyone out there surfin’, keep your feet up, tiger sharks are matin’ right now.
  • Surfing was great, but a little windy. My leash got caught in the reef and I thought it was a shark biting, I almost crapped my shorts.
  • Met some new friends from Bend, Oregon. We plan on meeting up again next year. Their son, ironically named Oliver, hit it off great with Sam.
  • Having no inhibitions about door dings for two weeks was liberating. As a matter of fact, my Trailblazer was even keyed on the passenger-side door (unprovoked, really!).
  • Did you go golfing? No. It was going to cost upwards of $200 with green fees, cart rental, club rental, lunch .. so I decided to take that money back to the mainland and spend it on more lessons.
  • I nearly finished the Zelda: Phantom Hourglass for DS. Unheard of, especially since I’m not 12. Zelda is supposed to take months to finish. I have to say it’s the best RP video game I’ve ever played, hands down.
  • The road up to Haleakala was narrow and kinda scary. Violently jerking the wheel in jest to make my mother-in-law scream, priceless.

The flight back was uneventful.

I forgot to add, I came back 3 or 4lbs lighter.  Odd considering I ate practically whatever I wanted.

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How was the flight?

23 October 2007 at 12:13 pm (travel)

It sucked.

5:00a: Wake up
5:15a: Check Hawaiian airlines, flight is delayed from 8:50 to 11a
5:20a: Wife goes back to sleep, dad watches TV
6:00a: Sam wakes up
6:20a: Jill & Sofie wake up
6:45a: We leave the house
7:00a: Drop the Yuke off at Jill’s parents
7:45a: Pull up to LAX, Terminal 2, Hawaiian Airlines
7:55a: Find porter, informs us that it’s too late to check in to the flight, even though it’s delayed 2 hours. He leaves to check.
8:10a: All bags are checked in, we enter the terminal and wait to go through TSA security line
8:30a: In the terminal, find a row of 4 chairs overlooking the runway and set up camp. No plane is visible at the gate.
9:30a: No plane visible at the gate
10:00a: Terminal is full, announcement that the plane is having a “part replaced” and an update will come from maintenance at 11am. we are obviously not leaving at 11am.
10:45a: People are getting extremely upset, a few shouting confrontations occur. Many passengers had been waiting in the terminal since 6am.
11:00a: An announcement arrives that the part is installed, and another announcement will come at noon.
11:45a: I build rapport with the manager and ask her what the likelihood is of the plane actually taking off (she had been getting screamed at by most everyone else, I played the good cop). She says “low” and offers the chance to have Hawaiian book me on another plane to Hawaii. The next flight out is 5:30 (5 hours later) on American. An update is due from maintenance in 15m. We are perplexed. I wanted to stay and wait for the announcement, Jill wants to book another airline.
12:00p: Jill’s gut feeling wins out, we exit the terminal. The security line is so long we realize there is no going back.
12:05p: At the Hawaiian Airlines ticketing counter, there are only 2 agents working, and they are painfully slow.
12:15p: Flight listed as “canceled” on the departure board.
12:20p: Flight removed from the board, ticketing agents remark that it was a mistake
2:15p: a full two hours later, finally reach the ticketing counter. A 3:30p direct flight to Maui on United closed up just minutes before we got our chance.
2:45p: After 30m of watching the agent type and look confused we got tickets on a 5:30p flight to Honolulu on American. It would mean we would have to stay in Honolulu and fly to Maui the next day, we are OK with this. For my trouble, I negotiated $900 in flight credits and a promise to pay for my hotel in Honolulu.
3:00p: We arrive at the AA ticket desk, there is another painfully long line waiting for us. We find out from other HI travelers we recognized that the Hawaiian airlines flight was actually postponed until 11:30p, not canceled. We feel lucky.
3:45p: We get our tickets and head through security. I have no metal items on me, yet the metal detector rings. Both myself and my 3 year old son are searched. What a sad, fucking world we live in when TSA agents are frisking a 3 year old. I was extremely upset that this happened. I hate feeling like a criminal in my own country. I think that the machine was rigged to flag us b/c we went through the exact same detector earlier and didn’t get flagged.
3:55p: arrive at the gate, relieved. We find another spot close to the window and let the kids run around. They have been in the airport for 8 hours now and were amazingly OK with everything, rolling around having a good time. They didn’t know how bad they were being screwed.
3:50p: I check in with a gate agent b/c we don’t have seats on the ticket, she said I had to wait for the flight agents to arrive but that I should get a seat.
4:00p: Gate change
5:00p: The nightmare continues, gate agent announces that the “plane has been switched at the last minute and there are 20 fewer seats, all seats are being automatically reassigned.” I wait in line, agent tells me that my name will be called when and if I have seats.
5:30p: Our name hasn’t been called yet, I pay for internet access and start researching other options. Up until this point I was resigned to the bad luck, but considering how things are going 9 hours into it, I start freaking out. Kids are getting difficult to handle, Sam is especially argumentative.
5:45p: Our name is called, we have seats. Together. We are tired, sad, but jubilant. We are on our way to Hawaii.
5:55p: Plane starts boarding. A new friend I had made points out that we can board the plane in the first class line b/c we have children. Cool, we get on board and settle in.
6:20p: Most passengers are on board. Suddenly, the plane shuts off. Jets stop spinning, lights turn off, a/c stops. Dead quiet, pitch dark. Emergency lights come on. Slowly, the plane starts making the usual noises. Things feel sketchy.
6:25p: The captain announces what he thinks was the problem (a short out of a power junction thingy) and mentions that the part has to be inspected by the maintenance crew. Will take 20m.
7:25p: An hour later, the plane checks out. Fully two hours after scheduled departure, we are ready to take off. I was not particularly thrilled about being on this aircraft.
7:45p: Waiting for “last minute baggage” and “we are really going to do it this time folks, we are ready to pull away.”
7:55p: Power loss again.
8:15p: Captain announces that the plane needs to be checked. A few moments later they tell us we have to get off the plane. Great. I didn’t know this, but when we got off I left my case full of Children’s DVDs on the plane. Critical mistake.
8:25p: We are in the terminal again, at this point we are screwed. Broken plane, baggage is checked in, kids are freaking out, totally at the mercy of AA. I take Sofia for a walk and notice that the ground crew is taking luggage off our old plane, so there is no chance we are getting back on it to fly out. Feeling desperate.
8:55p: Jill rings and says that my new friend is signaling me to join him in antoher line. I walk over, the news is that a new plane is coming and we need to check in once more to verify our seats. Good news. Subsequently, the ticketing agent verifies our seats.
9:45p: Plane arrives at the gate. It’s much larger than the last one (a 767). Kids are in total freak mode, parents are freaking out a little too. We are all on our 13th hour. We should be in bed in Maui by now.
10:45p: Plane boards.
11:00p: Plane takes off. Jill jokes that if we had stayed with Hawaiian for the 11:30p flight then we would have been kicking ourselves for not switching airlines, yet there we were taking off on American at the exact same time. The irony is at least entertaining. There is enough room for Jill and I to take 2 complete middle rows. We set the kids up to sleep but they are way too amped. Dad gets mad and yells at Sam, Jill convinces dad to just let him watch the DVD player. Sam falls asleep after 10m. Sofia takes 90m longer.
12:00a: Some time later, attendant offers drinks. I take a Jack Daniels and an individual sized bottle of wine, and drink them in short order. Feeling good.
12:45a: Feeling bad. Drank too fast, no food in stomach. Proceed to vomit 2 times over the course of the next 90m, preventing me from sleeping.
2:00a: Finally fall asleep. Jill is asleep too, Sofia put up a pretty big fight. I was ready for a nasty scrap if any of the nasty looks from other passengers materialized into verbal communication.

Switching to Hawaiian time, PST + 3 hours.

1:00a: Plane lands. On the descent Sam vomits everything in his stomach. It was upsetting for the both of us. Passengers around were very nice and handed me towels and blankets to clean up.
1:15a: We were told to go to the ticketing desk to get a hotel voucher, but noone is present. We take a shuttle to the nearest hotel, the Ohana Airport Hotel, and check in. Kids look like zombies.
1:45a: We go to sleep, Sofia has a hard time again, but we all go down.
4:45a: Dad wakes up, Sam wakes up. Everyone wakes up feeling much better. We take showers, get dressed.
5:30a: Get on shuttle back to the airport.
5:50a: Check in for our flight, agent says we have to get seats at the gate. I appeal to a higher authority, a manager steps over. I calmy explain the situation and he agrees to fix it. He walks away with my tickets and returns in 10m with seat assignments in the handicap row. With a window seat too, I was worried about Sam vomiting again.
9:00a approximate: We land in Maui, almost a full day after we originally arrived at LAX.
10:30a
: We arrive at our condo in Kahana, just north of Kaanapali. 23 hours of travel, door to door, for a 5 hour flight.

I can’t say I am mad, I’m just really glad it’s over and that we are here in Maui. It was just as likely that we would have given up and gone home only to try again the next day. The kids were amazingly tough, they took things well and we were so proud of them. I can’t correct the airline industry, but I can find ways around it. First Class, for example, would have made most of this experience more tolerable — VIP lounges, better service, etc. Booking on larger, more stable airlines with a better maintenance record would be good too, except Hawaiian ranks high in this industry category.

I want my hotel stay in Honolulu reimbursed and I’m going to wrestle them for a few more miles. From what I hear, this is an extremely rare event for Hawaiian Airlines and since I have another free rewards ticket, a 50% off coupon and $900 in flight credits, I’ll be flying them in the future again anyway. As for American, almost the exact same thing happened to me in Chicago a few years ago, so I’ll avoid them as much as possible. I don’t ever want to forget this experience so this is why I wrote it down, ad nauseum.

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No more mess, no more mess, no more mess, no more mess

19 October 2007 at 4:03 pm (kids)

Pick it up! Pick it up! Pick it up! Pick it up! Pick it up! Pick it up! Pick it up!

Ska for kids. Awesome.

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LA Times Editorial Commentary

15 October 2007 at 1:34 pm (important)

LATimes.com allows user commentary on it’s articles which makes it interesting to see how people are reacting to the issues. It pulls journalism closer to it’s readers similar to how a blog interacts with it’s peanut gallery but different in that it’s very clear that there is a piece of journalism and then a related set of commentary apart from the article. In blog style I find it hard to uncouple the two, especially when the author participates in the banter.

The Homicide Report is a great, sad example of how this feature can connect a story to real people (here’s a touching example, read the note from the daughter of the victim). Sometimes reader commentary can be thoroughly disappointing too, as in this case, a story of a mother and her two children killed as a result of illegal street racing. Examples of comments I found repulsive:

  • I belive the strongest measure for street racing is to automatically lay down a new law or bill that makes street racing an attemped murder charge the minute they even participate a race in the streets especially if they get caught street racing.
  • Look at who is doing the street racing: male hispanics aged 17 to 30. Make it a law that they cannot drive in Ca. until they can speak English, prove they’re not alcoholics or involved in gangs, have a valid Ca. driver’s license and are over 30 years of age. If they can’t satisfy any of those, DEPORT THEM ASAP!
  • The United States should not tolerate people like this. They should be deported to some other country where they would torture them for crimes…

I posted my own comment with condolences to the victim’s family and it hasn’t shown yet, 4 hours after I originally submitted, so moderation is indeed in place. Considering the extreme nature of a handful of comments it would be interesting to hear their policy on what they hold and what they let through. Filtering out condolences and blatant stupidity I found that the balance of the commentary was draconian, tickling my recollection of the message in Frontline’s most excellent recent story, “When kids get life.

Obviously the editorial staff at the LA Times are paying attention too, they haven’t just turned this over to a bunch of interns, here’s a humorous stab at the comment spam they are getting on the LA Land blog in the Real Estate section: When a “comment” is a come-on.

I will continue to skim through the comments, every now and then, there is something worth reading:

  • Guys / Gals, I am a personal friend of the Man who lost his family. He loved his family and although he was not in the car with his wife and two children, he died with them. There are 1,000 fixes and 1,000 arguments why each one won’t work. This is a simple case of two individules that did not have responsibility instilled into them. In this case, it is my friend’s wife and kids that paid the ticket. I do not know if my friend will ever be the same, probably not, however I do know that we have to instill responsibility into our children and raise them to be pro-active in thier choices, not reactive to a challenge.

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Happy Birthday Sofia!

10 October 2007 at 7:52 am (announce)

It went by so fast and it’s been such a fun trip.  In a selfish way, I’m sad you’re one, but I’m also honored to have taken every step of the way with you.  Happy birthday, Sofie!

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Something looks familar..

29 September 2007 at 9:15 am (funny)

There are two ebay commercials running out there right now, maybe you’ll recognize them from the descriptions.  One where a guy wins a car in a carnival, and another where a vase is being thrown in a hail mary play in a football game.  Both struck an odd chord, they had a creepy feeling to them that I couldn’t put my finger on.

Well, the red mustang in the driveway in the first commercial, and then the lady holding the vase in the living room in the second commercial, were both filmed at my in-laws house.  I forgot they filmed a commercial there months ago and the ads are just now showing up.

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Don’t feel sorry for the banks

27 September 2007 at 9:45 pm (real estate)

Banks are having a tough time, aren’t they? The fantastically lucrative sub-prime market has totally shut down, tightened loan approval standards have decreased the number of new loan applications and, worst of all, inventory is foreclosing in record numbers. Well not worst of all, actually. The bank doesn’t eat every home it forecloses and the only monetary loss they incur is the cost of dumping it on the real estate market. Understanding this is key to understanding the next move you should make in Real Estate. Right now, it’s the “Big Question.”

Any [primary] home loan, any, requires a 20% cushion. In most cases it takes the form of a) a down payment paid by the buyer, b) Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) or c) a second loan to cover. If the house goes into foreclosure then the first lender only needs to recover 80% of the cost of the property to get it’s principal back. Their only real loss was the interest not collected from the delinquent borrower plus the hassle of selling the property.

If a second loan was used to cover then the holder of the second loan will most likely lose all their money b/c the bank will dump the property for less than it’s worth, leaving nothing for the second lender to collect. If PMI insurance was used, then the insurance company would cover the remaining 20%, less any amount over the 80% the lender was able to sell the property for.

If the buyer dropped 20% in cash, it’s gone. Recovering anything over 80% is next to impossible.

So the bank will always get it’s money back. Except. Oops. There’s one big problem here, and it has to do with economics. If one bank dumps a property for 80% of it’s value, no problem. If 100 banks dump 1,000 properties at 80% then they are adding to the supply of houses on the market that will ultimately decrease demand. The first wave will liquidate. The subsequent waves will drive prices down. If prices go so far down that they surpass the magic 80% loan-to-value ratio, then, oh boy, are the banks in trouble.

In layman’s terms, this is what will happen: the mortgage backed securities they sell will devalue, their credit ratings will suffer and as a result will not be able to lend as much money to consumers. Less loans, less revenue, bad news.

Right now foreclosures are starting to hit the market. My agent, Jill Suarez, had a running mix of a handful of listings over the past 5 years. She now has hundreds, all REOs (she has a special relationship with some local banks). REO stands for “Real Estate Owned.” It should be REOBTB, for “Real Estate Owned By The Bank.” These are foreclosed properties that didn’t get liquidated at a trust sale that the bank now owns and needs to sell. In a down market, the best deals are REOs.

One strategy to the “Big Question” is to wait for a few waves of foreclosures to hit the market. Since rate adjustments on variable-rate loans happen every quarter, the start of a new quarter pretty much starts the new cycle. By next April, I imagine the real estate market is gonna be crying for mama. And this time, I’m putting my money where my mouth is (or, at least, seriously exploring).

So that’s my idea today, September 27th. I might change my mind.

One side note: you don’t actually lose everything if you hold a second loan. Assuming it’s recorded, as it should be, when the first loan forecloses you have the right as holder of the second to buy the first loan. Some sharks made a killing off this in the early 90s. What you’d do is go to a trustee auction, buy the second loan for pennies on the dollar and then immediately buy the first loan from the property owner. In almost all cases, the first was… you guessed it, 80%… and the buyer of the second would turn around and liquidate the property. The only issue was that you had to evict the resident if they were still living in the house…

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Update!

25 September 2007 at 9:01 pm (important)

By now everyone’s heard of the house abandoned on the 101.  It’s just the kind of thing you’d come to expect in a nutty place like Los Angeles, almost commonplace.  Actually, so ordinary that I drove right by it for two weeks and didn’t notice it was there.  I mean drove immediately past it on the 101, in fact, my car actually points directly at it when I get on the freeway.

How would you like “an interior that comforts your very soul“?  Yeah, baby!!

There is a new sign in front of the men’s steam room at the weho Equinox, it starts off EQUINOX HAS A ZERO TOLERANCE POLICY FOR INAPPROPRIATE BEHAVIOR in bold, large font white on black lettering.  I asked a salesguy what that was all about and he told me I didn’t want to know.  Ewwwwwwwwww!  Gross.

Almost time to start counting down to Hawaii.

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McRae dies in heli crash

15 September 2007 at 2:53 pm (important)

We just saw him flip his car at the finish line at the 2007 X-games in Home Depot Center.  His 5-year old son was with him in addition to another unnamed father and son.  Very sad.

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Summer ‘07 Update

5 September 2007 at 9:35 pm (real estate)

End of summer views on real estate:

We have a massive rate adjustment taking effect on variable rate loans this month combined with a seasonally slow market for the balance of the year (most people prefer not to move while their kids are in school or through the holidays).

In my observation, prices have not tanked.. yet.  Sales are slow, but prices are stable.

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Hangar update

26 August 2007 at 2:59 pm (announce)

  • Wedgie, now with a mega 16/15/4 brushless motor and a 3s LiPo 2400mah pack. Should scream, going to inaugurate this into the air later this afternoon.
  • Yak 54, flown 3 times, crashed twice. First time Sam grabbed the transmitter from my hand and I managed a hard landing. Second time it grazed a tree trunk. Given that this plane is 100% uncovered foam, even the lightest bump causes major damage. Very fun though.
  • CSD Switchblade, now fully ready to go. The engine mounts broke last time out so I used that as an excuse to give the plane a full once-over.

The Photon and 4-wing Encore are still working, the 2-wing Encore is damaged awaiting repair by a seasoned professional (not me).

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Some workout tips

22 August 2007 at 8:19 pm (announce, ocd)

  • A tungsten-carbide [wedding] ring will not get scratched by the bar.
  • Indoor soccer shoes offer the best of all worlds — great for running, great for lifting.
  • Core strength is the foundation upon which all strength is built in the body (took me 4 years to figure this out).
  • Finding a gym that has less crowds equates to more time at the bar.
  • If you go to a crowded gym, you should count what your time is worth into the monthly fee.
  • Doping is rampant, don’t use others as a measuring stick.
  • Soccer highlights are crazy motivating on the treadmill.
  • Bench press is safer in the squat rack.
  • Stuart was right, the trap bar rules for dead lifting.
  • I Love Lucy is  a Desilu Production.

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Desert recap

22 August 2007 at 7:56 pm (announce)

  • Flemings rules, blows LG’s away.
  • Soak City is a blast, they have stuff for kids not quite 42″ tall.
  • Talladega Nights was a riot. So was Little Miss Sunshine.
  • Bourne Ultimatum, thumbs up.
  • Beringer Founders Estate Cabernet Sauvignon, thumbs down.
  • 115 degrees, no problem.
  • No internet access, priceless.

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Doing well, but my hobbies blow

22 August 2007 at 7:44 pm (important)

I have a garage full of r/c planes but only 3 of them can actually fly.

  • +1. My slope wing has a warp on the right-side wing, complicating right turns but can still fly. Damaged, but airworthy.
  • -1. The Microjet is damaged as of the yesterdays flight; repairable, but I refuse to repair it — I hate this plane. I think I’m going to donate it to a boy scout troop.
  • -1. The 2-wing Encore is busted, I began to repair it last year but realized I was going to botch the job. So I contacted the original kit maker and he recommended a guy in San Diego, we’re gonna hook up next week and he’s going to fix it for a small fee.
  • -1. My wing warrior eZipper flies tail-heavy, and I am not willing to fix it. Another donation.
  • -2. There are two MM Glidertech Wedgies in the garage that need to be fully retrofitted, but currently not airworthy.
  • -1. The CSD Switchblade is airworthy, but has faulty motor mounts. If I’m going to fix those, I’m going to be tempted to fix a number of other things. So this plane is out for now.
  • -1. The Zagi is stripped, and not worth rebuilding. Another donation.
  • +2. The 4-wing Encore and Photon are airworthy.

So at the moment, I have 3 planes I can fly with another 5 out of commission or headed to the trash bin. My collection used to be huge and diverse, this is what I get for abondoning the hobby for 2 years.

The future.

I have 3 projects going:

  • The Alula and the Weasel just arrived.
  • The Yak 57 is 60% complete, awaiting new batteries from FMA Direct.
  • I’m going to retrofit one of the Wedgie wings with a brushless and see where that takes me.

The next plane I buy will be a hotliner:

Or, a GWS Formosa.
Of course, I have the electric heli as well, but I ran out of adult diapers flying it.

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Stuff I’ve been meaning to write

13 August 2007 at 8:51 pm (announce, kids, nerd, ocd, real estate)

expedia

For a flight from Palm Springs to Phoenix, Expedia has a 13hr option. Why bother. I couldn’t resist another search: Burbank to John Wayne = 11hr 40m. Sweet!

Sam is into 1/64 die-cast cars (Hot Wheels). We’ve been buying whatever catches his eye at Target until I stopped and realized we’ve really just been stocking up on bad taste. So our last few purchases have been carefully selected:

  • 1966 Chevy Nova
  • 2007 VW Golf GTI
  • 2006 Audi RS6 Avant
  • 1966 Lincoln Continental
  • 2007 Porsche Cayman S
  • 2007 Dodge Charger SRT-8

The sub-prime “crisis” is a distraction from the real issue: rising interest rates. The r/e market will tank when triple-A paper starts going down the toilet — highly likely considering how many “creatively financed” loans are out there (that translates to “adjustable rate” loans). Meanwhile, we’ll have to tolerate stupid reality TV shows leftover from the hype.

In the last 48 hours, two new r/c aircraft have been purchased: the alula and the weasel pro. The alula is pure curiosity, and I plan to go apeshit on the details building it. The weasel is pure lust having seen it in action this last weekend.

I also flew the CSD Switchblade and subsequently decided to keep it (I was going to sell it for $200, I got an offer for $165 and decided it wasn’t worth the trouble). I am done with the Microjet.

I am crazy-hooked on the theme song for Charlie and Lola.

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The doctor is: In

10 August 2007 at 2:49 pm (ocd)

My garage has been a complete mess for months, so little by little I’ve managed to organize things well enough to walk around. The last frontier of annoying disorganization was my workbench which has been primarily occupied by Bill’s unbuilt eRaider flying wing introduced over 2 years ago and never finished. So I finished it and rediscovered how fun it was to tinker with r/c model planes.

Since then, I’ve fixed and flown my Microjet, eZipper, and Photon; hovered my Heli-max Axe CP (and damaged the tail rotor); bought and partially built/damaged a Yak-54 3D (a replacement is already on its way); and ordered a 2007 Mapleleaf Encore from Don Peterson. Additionally, I transitioned most of my planes to my super-cool new radio, the Futaba 9C-HP, and recharged all my NiCad batteries. So I’m ready to fly.  The doctor is in.

This Saturday, there’s a Slope Soaring event at Pt. Fermin where a big group of enthusiasts are going to fly, sell/trade planes and pot luck, so I’m gonna head down with Sam and enjoy the festivities (and maybe buy a turnkey PSS plane).

I have almost attained inventory nirvana, I would stop buying planes if I could have (1) a scale warbird, (2)  a fantastically overpowered wing, (3) a “hotliner” and when I’m reasonably good at sloping, (4) a composite slope blade.  And since this is a hobby, I’ll need several versions of each.  And accessories.  And tools.

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New hangar addition

4 August 2007 at 12:24 pm (announce)

eRaiderJust finished the last touches on the Wing Warrior eRaider. It’s powered by a Mega Motors brushless, two Hitec HS-85MG servos and coordinated through a Castle Creations brushless speed control and a Hitec 555 receiver. It came with a LiPo battery, but I was too scared to use it and opted for a NiCad instead.

Does this plane look familiar to any of my readers? I plan to inaugurate this plane into the air before work sometime this week.

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New lunchtime ground rules

1 August 2007 at 12:47 pm (announce)

Effective immediately, I will only eat at the following places in West Hollywood for lunch (in order of preference):

  • Cafe Primo
  • Mirabelle
  • Ezo Sushi
  • Pi
  • Dialog *
  • Frankie & Johnny’s
  • Saddle Ranch

Under no circumstance will I dine at

  • Dukes
  • Raja
  • Poquito Mas
  • Pita Pit
  • Subway
  • Togos
  • Cafe Cockroach (the Med place)

If faced with the possibility of going to any of these businesses I will politely but firmly decline. If you see me in one of these places through the balance of this year, please remind me of this blog post if you would be so kind.

On very, very rare occasions I will reluctantly go to

  • Mel’s
  • Panini
  • Red Rock
  • Hamburger Hamlet
  • Barneys **
  • IHOP **

Please make a note of this. This list excludes all driving destinations, such as the Grove or the CC mall, those will be evaluated on a case by case basis. But I can tell you right now that I won’t eat at most of the restaurants in the Farmer’s Market. Don’t get me started.
* sandwich only
** very, very, very rare occasions

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Things I want to buy today..

27 July 2007 at 2:53 pm (ocd)

A 1965 AC Cobra.  This has many enticing options, you can go the pre-fabricated route and just drop in an engine, get a kit that comes with a mechanic that will build the car in your garage in 2 weeks, or go all out and build a kit from the ground up with parts from a donor Mustang.  If I got serious about this, the opportunity to research all the possibilities would be enjoyably overwhelming.

Or, I could just buy a 97 911 Targa and be done with it.

Our iBook is showing it’s age, I’m thinking Macbook or a cool PC laptop.

I’d love some outdoor speakers, maybe I’ll pick those up tomorrow.

Last weekend, I almost bought a 25′ Airstream Safari with a 2006 Ford F-150 and a 1979 911 Porsche Turbo.  Both deals fell through.

I’m debating putting Euro License Plates on my car.  There’s a ding on the front bumper that could be covered up.

A taildrop watch to attach to my backpack.

A new expresso maker, but only if ours is truly going bad.

A projection alarm clock.

A 1967 Camaro project car.  Damn the stereotypes.

A case of fine wine.

7′10″ Becker Surftech epoxy surfboard.

I’m scraping, so I think that’s it.  Just for reference, here was the last post with the same title.

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New Kicks

26 July 2007 at 10:02 pm (announce, ocd)

My tires started sounding like monster truck tires around 11k miles, something was wrong. The first visit to the dealership resulted in a $90 rotation and balance, but the problem got so bad that I could hear the tires over the radio.

I googled “e60 tsb” and came up with this TSB that described my exact problem, armed with this it wasn’t a problem convincing Pacific BMW to give me a new set of tires — and they did just that. So my ride has a new set of OEM Dunlop Runflats, free. $300 each on tirerack.com.

God bless the Internet.

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How was China?

26 July 2007 at 9:37 pm (travel)

I get asked this alot. Or it’s replaced the staple hallway greeting, so instead of “How’s it going?” I get “How was China?”

It’s hard to tell when people really want to know how the China experience really was, so I typically say “it’s different.” If I get ribbed for details, I say..

  • emergency isn’t “911″ it’s “119″
  • cell phones have no voicemail
  • the smog is so thick you can’t see past 2 city blocks
  • there is no tipping (but the Chinese will certainly take your money if you offer it for nothing)
  • people really do ride bikes everywhere
  • McDonalds doesn’t taste the same
  • everyone wears Prada, Gucci, Coach, etc. but it’s all fake
  • there is a channel dedicated to Yao Ming
  • everywhere you look, there are 200 chinese people looking back at you. everywhere.
  • media is censored, but equally as useless as the over-sensationalized press we have stateside
  • internet porn is fiercely censored but you can get laid in almost any barber shop in Beijing (they are fronts for brothels)
  • in most public bathrooms, toilets are built into the ground. you have to squat
  • many bathrooms are unisex — there’s a common wash basin but men or women can go into the stalls
  • “tea” smells “clean” (like “pine” for westerners), so bathrooms reek of a nasty tea smell when, in reality, they are spotlessly clean
  • it’s only official if it has a red stamp on it, the more stamps, the better
  • there’s a puddle of grease beneath almost every Chinese dish
  • fine wine is not served in fine restaraunts (at least, the ones that I went to)
  • there’s a 15 hour time lag, as opposed to 8 for most of Europe
  • China is a day ahead of CA
  • the bacon at the Kuntai is the best bacon, ever
  • the driving is unexplicably crazy, yet organized and sophisticated
  • utilities are paid in advance through a card and cannot be refreshed until a lower threshold is reached, so you may be running to the convenience store to recharge your electric bill when your fridge turns off
  • refrigeration is a rare concept
  • fish served in restaurants are alive in tanks, get caught, cooked and served on demand. fine restaurants will ask you to visually approve the fish beforehand.
  • doorways are slightly shorter, especially for people over 6′ tall
  • cop cars drive with their lights on all the time, and noone moves over for them
  • police don’t pull people over in their cars, they stand in the street and point at cars to pull over
  • it’s ok to yell at a cop
  • receipts are given in currency denominations, not on a single slip of paper. for example, a receipt for 175 would be one for each 100, 50, 25.
  • receipts have scratch off “lottery” style games that could result in cash winnings, which encourages people to ask for receipts which businesses have to buy from the government
  • credit cards as a method of payment are typically rare
  • service is terrible in restaurants, but tolerable enough to enjoy the absence of tipping
  • diet coke is rare, regular coke is the norm. pepsi is almost non-existent.
  • there isn’t as much flag-waving as you’d think there’d be in a communist country.
  • most major intersections have underground walkways for pedestrians
  • Beijing feels very safe, at least in the areas I went to, crime is rare
  • people smoke everywhere
  • table tennis is a staple in most parks
  • authorities do not carry guns. the only gun-carrying people I ever saw were guards at high-level government buildings and foreign embassies.
  • for a number of reasons, the mix of cars on the road is totally bizzare: Volkswagen, Cherry, Buick, Shaghai GM, Audi, Mercedes Benz, Citroen with light sprinklings of Japanese cars mixed in.
  • the Buick Regal is considered a high-line luxury car
  • air conditioning, even on hot days, is rare in most places. even our very own corporate office.
  • there are almost no motorcycles, they were banned several years ago.

So that’s my answer, as many as I can remember.

But beyond all that, the ultimate culture shock in Beijing was being asked where I was from.

“Los Angeles”

confused look.

“Hollywood?”

blank stare.

“California?”

losing interest.

“United States”

Oh! United ah States!

It’s weird to go to a place so uninfluenced by the West that they wouldn’t even recognize iconic names from SoCal. Perhaps that’s geocentric of me, but in all my travels “Los Angeles” answers the question just fine. Not in China. China definitely has it’s own groove, it’s different.

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Uncensored

2 July 2007 at 1:38 am (travel)

My little blog has suddenly ascended the Great Firewall of China, on a whim I checked my RSS feed and results came back.  I was able to log in and now here I am posting.. in Beijing!  It didn’t function all of the last trip in April and most of this one.  So on to it then..

Given Bill’s controversial height here in China (he regularly gets requests for group photos with people he doesn’t know), I thought it’d be fun to play Where’s Bildo.

Yesterday we ascended the other wall in China at Badaling, from the very bottom to the highest tower.  It was a tough hike, Debra raced me most of the way.  She won, but she cheated.

I had a chance to ride a bike from the office to dinner the other night, it was  a blast!

Just how bad is the air pollution in Beijing?  This photo was taken a day before it rained.  This photo was taken a day after.  Most of our time here has looked like the first photo.   You can barely see past a couple city blocks, no kidding.

They’ve just installed a Table Tennis table in the office, it’s been great.  I’ve managed to hold my own against the local color.

I really like this photo.

Here are the rest.

Chinese food is treating me poorly, but between the western style breakfasts in the hotel, an Outback steakhouse around the corner and the McDonalds in the hotel, I am doing ok. Halfway through the trip, I’m having a good time, getting alot done at work but miss my family and can’t wait to get home.

Oh, and I have a new name for Bill: Fun-chu (crazy pig).

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Cars of note in our parking garage

20 June 2007 at 10:01 am (ocd)

Maserati. There are two, one owned by the CEO and parked in the same spot every day. But then there’s a white two-door that is curiously parked in the non-reserved section of the garage.

GMC Acadia. I want one of these, there’s a brand new cream colored one on P3. I am trying to eyeball the owner to get a ride around the block.

Porsche Cayenne Turbo S. Owned by an executive. Black. Red brake calipers. Very nice.

Lexus SC. Ordinarily an ordinary car, about as exciting as burnt toast. But what makes this car interesting is that it’s owned by our favorite corporate mega-manager Barry Diller. What’s particularly interesting to me is that a mega-manager-billionaire would choose to drive such a bland car. This is not a complete reflection on him, please do not find this a reason to fire me, but man, he could use some of my advice buying his next set of wheels.

Frankenstein Mustang. Driven by another fellow OCDer, modded to unreal proportions.. I think at the last hallway conversation this car had north of 500 horsepower. It’s something of a sleeper too, you’d never know from the outside what’s under the hood.

Cadillac EXT. Cream, with 22s. Tinted windows. Fresh from the rap video shoot.

Land Rover LR2. Brand new. Silver. This is a chick-car, by all accounts, yet it is driven by a guy.

As for BMWs, there’s a flurry of late model 4-door 3-series sedans, a brand new 335i, a 2004 525i, a new Z3 and two M3s. But my heart skips a beat when I drive past the two e39 540s.

There are a few models missing that I would expect to see in our collection: an Audi S4, any AMG-ized Mercedes, a 911, any SRT-class Dodge, an SL in the executive lot, a Mitsu Evo, a late model Tahoe/Yukon, perhaps a Lexus IS and finally, a Civic Si.

Then, of course, there’s that little Nissan Sentra parked between the Range Rover, Saab 9-3, Porsche Cayenne and Maserati on P1…. :)

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Market Update, Pre-Summer 2007

8 June 2007 at 2:02 pm (real estate)

A year ago I predicted we would be well into a real estate crash by the summer of 2007 — I was mostly right but things haven’t materialized quite as I thought they would. My theory was that the imbalance of ARM loans predicated on super-inflated principal at the top end of the price spectrum would all go back to the bank, but in reality it was the bottom of the market that fell through — Sub-prime mortgages with high LTV ratios, primarily making up the bottom spectrum of the overall price range for any given area, have started tanking the entire Sub-Prime-Mortgage business and the areas that relied on that type of financing to turn over real estate properties. Details are all over the news.

For California, Notices of Default — the very first step in the foreclosure process — have risen by 148% in the first quarter 2007 compared to the same quarter last year; trustee sales are up 802% (this number means that more foreclosures are going to the last step in the process); the ARM share of all mortgages in California over the last three years has been roughly 70% of all loans written, with negative amortization loans going from 7 to a whopping 26% of those — pair that with a dwindling percentage of “stated income” loans from 34% in 2004 to just 19% in 2006 — all signs of an incredibly brittle market. To the layman, this basically means that an economically significant percentage of real estate financed in the past 2 years has been (1) on ARM mortgages, (2) negatively amortized and (3) with loose requirements on documenting qualifying income.

Source: The Norris Group, California Economic Update. May 2007

There are two things that can keep the party going: low interest rates and rising equity (or rising values, however you want to put it). If you can refinance your risky mortgage you might having a fighting chance at staying in your house. If you can’t refi, chances are you can sell and break even. In the past 5 years, people have either refi’ed or sold at a profit big enough to cover the principal they’ve borrowed. Neither options appear sustainable — interest rates are rising worldwide and the real estate market is about to experience a glut of REO properties by the end of this summer. The worst that can happen is that interest rates will go up and prices will go down.

I have a personal suspicion that rates are being artificially held low for this precise reason, if the US is drop-kicked into a recession we are going to take world financial markets down with us — in particular, China, since they’ve bought so much of our debt and rely on our consumers to buy their products.

So let’s see what happens: sit back, relax and watch the show. By October we should have a pretty good idea how things are going to look for the next 18 months.

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Cool present

7 June 2007 at 9:18 pm (funny)

My team made a t-shirt for me ribbing on stuff I’ve said here and there.  It was hilarious.  It came with a Strawberry-Chocolate-Mousse cake and Peet’s Coffee.  They are a thoughtful bunch, I was sincerely touched by the attention and effort put into it.  Today was a good day.

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