Last month I ordered a new MP3 player using Amex Membership Reward points.  It was stolen at Scholl Canyon Golf Course the day after I received it.  With no luck, I called every day for a week afterward asking if anyone had turned it.

This morning, as I was about to purchase a new one I figured it was a long shot to see if the purchase was covered under some kind of “Protection Program” and rang American Express.  I was quickly routed to a rep for the program, answered a few simple questions, including a description of how it was stolen, and was issued a credit for the charge.

Here are brief details of the program from the American Express website:

Purchase Protection repairs, replaces or reimburses you for the amount charged to the Card (not to exceed the original purchase price). Coverage is limited to up to $1,000 per Occurrence, up to $50,000 per Card account per policy year, and is in EXCESS of other sources of indemnity.

Thank you American Express!!

4190 HAMPSTEAD Rd La Canada, CA 91011

Listing Price Information

• Original Price: $1,515,000.00
• Search Price: $1,259,000.00

This one is being sold by the owner, who is also a real estate agent.  It’s been on the market for over half a year, and rightfully so — 1.5m is a joke.  In today’s market, considering today’s financing and competing properties, I’d say somewhere in the $900k range would be generous.

It’s got an awkward layout, everything needs updating, it’s small for the price and it’s split upon multiple levels — the street leads down to the house and then a pool about 30′ below the house — everything feels tight.  You might notice that the photo of the house is crowded, almost like the photographer should have stepped back, well he couldn’t.  He would have stepped off a cliff.

I can see this as a possible tear-down, at least the neighborhood is ok.

The Conference Board posted a report illustrating that consumer confidence is the lowest since ‘92 (a survey of 5,000 households, based on an index of 100 created in 1985). I am skeptical of subjective surveys to random phone numbers across the US asking leading questions like, “Do you think you are worse off than last year, or really worse off? Choose one.”

I will argue that the real inflation rate, not the bogus one published by the government, is the real number to watch with regard to consumer confidence through the balance of the year.

I am also going to watch new vehicle sales numbers through the summer, specifically luxury automobiles, to verify the current theories in the press that home equity was driving a surge in consumer spending. On paper this seems obvious, but crashing sales of MBZs and BMWs will solidify the proposition in my mind.

Theoretically, rents should also go up as demand increases for rental property fueled by people walking away from foreclosed homes.

On the bright side, business should be good: money is cheap, the weak dollar will encourage exports and the agriculture bubble should energize commodity markets, keeping money in the country. And the weather is nice.

Wallet photo.  As requested.  Similar in form to this wallet.

I got a new wallet today in a Shibuya department store.  It’s made by a local designer, it’s cool and if you know me and see it, you will be jealous. Hah!

Work obligations stole the morning and rain threatened to take the afternoon, but we struck back and braved the downpour with a visit to the Meiji Shrine. It started off with a repeating theme for this trip: we walk within 100′ of our destination, lose orientation and proceed to walk in a long arc away from our target. It happened in Akihabara, the golf range and today. Anyway, the shrine was cool. Glad we did it.

They had these cool lamps hanging from the eves of the main building and I snagged what I thought would be useful as wallpaper.

Today’s trip was prefixed by another venture into an inexpensive sushi bar in Shibuya, the Standing Sushi Bar. It was delicious, filling and like yesterday, just short of $10. With one exception I’ve been eating sushi at every meal on this trip (and loving every bite).

Haven’t posted in a while but what better time to update my blog with an occasion as special as leaving Beijing and arriving in Tokyo.

Beijing is raw, Tokyo is refined. Beijing is full of counterfeits, Tokyo is the real thing. Beijing is the frontier, Tokyo is the big city. Beijing pulsates on potential, Tokyo has been realized. Beijing doesn’t know how to bill you, Tokyo will open a hole in your wallet. Above all, Tokyo is the epitome of cool. I have a new found respect for the Japanese people and the magnificent city they’ve built in Asia, and I’m honored to partake in the adventure that is walking around Shibuya, Tokyo, Akihabara, Ginza, Ueno and Asakusa.

Today was electronic sensory overload in Akihabara from 7 floors of coin-op video games to 7 floors of electronic gadgets followed by a compulsory visit to the Apple Store in Ginza and split nicely down the middle with a conveyor-belt style sushi restaurant cheap enough by LA standards to be considered all-you-can-eat (and I just about ate all I could eat).

Yesterday was an adventure in getting lost trying to find a driving range sandwiched between two pro baseball stadiums highlighted with a vehement argument between Bill and I as to whether a particular fence in the distance was part of a baseball stadium or the range (turns out, both).

The adventure continues tonight as I have convinced my plain-hamburger-eating, lactose-intolerance-faking, diet-coke-in-the-veins-drinking buddy Bill to eat Japan’s signature dish: sushi. Although I’m confident there will be a KFC or McD’s chaser, I will at least get him to eat 1 sake sushi and post a video for those of you who would be amazed at such antics. To his credit, he did eat a whole shrimp 3 nights ago, tentacles, legs and all.

How they pull pranks on Wall Street.  Awesome.

Another reason why a mortgage bailout plan is a stupid idea.

Note to the Republican Party: add this to your recruiting brochure.  Millions of financially responsible Americans with money to contribute will flock to your party.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, has been making continuous forward-looking statements about real estate ownership over the past few months, baffling experts, r/e blogs and informed readers to no end.  I’ve seen this before in a different form, I can’t help but draw similarities between Mr. Yun’s press releases of late to the statements made by Iraq’s Minister of Information, Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Iraq.  I’m not going to go into details explaining it, you had to live through it, but the degree of misinformation from both parties is uncanny.

The party is officially over, Countrywide has discontinued it’s wholesale equity line products.  I wonder what effect this is going to have on the luxury car market (seriously).  No more equity withdrawals for Plasma TVs, BMW SUVs, Lavish 5-star vacations, designer jeans, the equity fun-money account is now closed.  Good riddance.  Now, back to credit card debt…

Stories outlining how people are coping with the financial times.  Good read.

OK ok ok.  A non-real estate link.  User contributed photos around the LA area on latimes.com.  Very cool.

The MBC blog ran a fantastic entry about the difference between the asking and selling price of homes in the area.  Executive summary: 10-15%.

If you’ve read almost any real estate article lately you’ve probably been beaten to death with news about declining median home prices in Los Angeles, but that number is so impersonal because it includes a wide demographic of property values and neighborhoods — hardly applicable to any specific person or situation apart from understanding that, as a whole, prices are going down.

Manhattan Beach is an affluent, high-priced area with good schools thereby extremely compatible with South Pasadena, La Canada and San Marino.  A 10-15% price spread is a meaningful metric, I am going to work on determining the actual spread with my propertyshark account.  More to come.

Quick update, of the 4 sample properties I posted in the Lodi Dodi article at the beginning of the year, none of them have sold (one went off-market) despite all being in highly desirable areas: San Marino, Pinecrest area of La Crescenta, Madison Heights in Pasadena and South Pasadena.

In January South Pas saw a lousy total of 3 transactions, one of them a foreclosure going back to the bank.  La Canada saw only 10 sales in the same time period.  Hard to tell if consumers are waiting on the sidelines for a sign to buy or of the buyers themselves have dried up.  Only time will tell.

When propertyshark has February numbers I’ll post them too.